Now that most of the votes have been counted, it's time to start planning for the year ahead.  In January, Oregon will have a new governor, John Kitzhaber, a House of Representatives that is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, and a Senate that (as of this writing) will have a narrow Democratic majority.

By far, the biggest issue the new government will face is the state budget.  Present projections predict a $3.2 Billion difference between state revenue and the cost of continuing existing state services through the 2011 to 2013 budget cycle.  Cuts will need to come from an already slimmed-down budget that took 9% across-the-board reductions this year and may require more downward adjustment if revenue forecasts do not pick up.

What can we expect from the new legislature?  If we are fortunate, the even balance of parties will encourage cooperation and moderation.  A spirit of common purpose and compromise should include the Governor who will have to be a part of deal-making.  With equal participation, neither party should be able to blame the other for the effect of unavoidable service cuts.

If we are not fortunate, there could be chaos, where the more strident voices jockey for advantage and seek to position themselves to tar the other party with accusations of all sorts.  This would be a disservice both to the people of Oregon and the institution of the legislature.  Hopefully, we Oregonians can avoid what seems to be a trend elsewhere.

Oregon's disability community is now faced with some difficult choices.  Legislators will be looking to us for suggestions about where to cut and how to cut.  If we refuse to engage, the decisions will be made without us.  

As in any difficult decision making process, advocacy groups need to start with defining their core values and envisioning the services that they would like to see down the road.   How can we build toward the world we want to see with the least damage to recipients?

To begin with, we need to assure that safety of our most vulnerable, but in doing so we should not underestimate what individuals and their families can accomplish with adequate community supports.  We must move away from services that default to institutional settings and expand brokerage and managed care models of community residential and support services.

In tight budget times, supported employment services are often on the chopping board.  But in these harsh economic times, does it make sense to keep people in positions of economic dependence and isolation?  

This is the time for advocates to put their values to the test.  If we don't, other interests will prevail.